* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092026 08/24/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 55 57 60 63 61 57 51 46 41 38 34 30 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 55 57 60 63 61 57 51 46 41 38 34 30 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 52 53 54 53 49 44 38 32 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 11 13 16 18 17 16 17 17 22 21 22 27 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -3 0 0 0 3 2 3 1 2 0 2 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 320 319 292 279 284 273 285 254 252 243 244 239 246 262 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.7 27.9 27.0 26.7 25.8 24.8 24.0 24.1 24.4 23.5 23.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 160 158 151 143 133 130 121 110 102 103 107 99 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.0 -50.3 -50.3 -49.8 -50.3 -49.8 -50.0 -49.8 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -50.6 -51.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 72 72 70 68 64 61 54 52 48 49 49 48 49 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 22 22 23 26 24 21 19 17 14 13 10 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 31 31 31 25 29 47 47 58 35 35 8 8 3 7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 54 31 35 54 31 22 10 8 2 -15 21 1 -15 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -7 0 0 -1 1 -1 8 4 5 5 8 9 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 850 844 853 846 838 911 993 1078 1203 1340 1479 1583 1682 1851 1731 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.5 20.9 21.5 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.3 23.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.7 116.5 117.3 118.0 119.7 121.4 123.1 125.0 126.9 128.7 130.6 132.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 11 14 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 21 17 19 13 8 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11. -11. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 18. 16. 12. 6. 1. -4. -7. -11. -15. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.8 114.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092026 ISELLE 08/24/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.70 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -73.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.77 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 42.6% 25.3% 18.2% 13.9% 24.7% 22.7% 13.1% Logistic: 4.5% 13.9% 3.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 19.3% 9.5% 6.7% 5.0% 8.4% 7.7% 4.4% DTOPS: 6.0% 19.0% 9.0% 4.0% 4.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.1% 19.1% 9.2% 5.3% 4.5% 7.2% 5.3% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092026 ISELLE 08/24/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##