* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092026 08/23/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 53 55 59 65 63 64 58 53 48 40 34 27 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 53 55 59 65 63 64 58 53 48 40 34 27 20 N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 50 53 55 57 58 56 50 44 36 30 24 19 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 10 12 17 16 20 16 23 26 29 34 36 40 41 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 -3 0 -1 -2 -2 4 6 4 3 7 3 2 1 4 2 SHEAR DIR 299 296 295 289 269 276 266 270 263 250 246 248 250 257 265 266 261 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.4 28.8 27.9 26.9 25.9 25.4 24.4 22.9 23.3 23.7 23.0 22.9 23.3 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 160 159 153 143 132 122 116 106 91 94 99 91 91 96 102 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.0 -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -49.9 -49.6 -49.7 -49.7 -49.8 -49.8 -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 72 69 65 58 51 51 52 53 51 49 49 49 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 24 24 25 28 26 27 25 23 20 16 13 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 41 31 31 24 24 22 38 28 30 26 12 9 -8 -12 -27 -10 -9 200 MB DIV 69 88 59 45 35 22 30 -8 -7 11 6 2 -11 -15 10 -8 -3 700-850 TADV -14 -5 -6 -7 0 -3 1 -2 9 9 12 5 10 10 17 24 16 LAND (KM) 850 846 859 850 832 867 893 967 1078 1215 1367 1418 1508 1596 1711 1882 1636 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.8 21.8 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.6 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.5 116.4 117.1 117.8 119.4 121.0 122.7 124.4 126.2 128.1 129.8 131.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 16 19 13 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. -0. -6. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 8. 7. 10. 7. 4. 0. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 14. 20. 18. 19. 13. 8. 3. -5. -11. -18. -25. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.6 114.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092026 ISELLE 08/23/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.71 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 1.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -48.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.43 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 21.6% 19.0% 16.5% 13.0% 21.6% 18.5% 10.6% Logistic: 0.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 7.6% 6.4% 5.5% 4.4% 7.2% 6.2% 3.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 20.0% 8.0% 4.0% 4.0% 13.0% 7.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.2% 13.8% 7.2% 4.7% 4.2% 10.1% 6.6% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092026 ISELLE 08/23/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##