* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092026 08/23/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 56 61 70 75 76 69 66 59 54 47 40 34 25 19 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 56 61 70 75 76 69 66 59 54 47 40 34 25 19 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 50 54 60 65 64 59 55 48 40 33 26 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 11 10 12 12 14 15 14 17 23 25 27 26 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 1 0 0 4 2 3 4 2 0 2 6 8 SHEAR DIR 352 321 327 325 305 253 272 254 285 252 223 220 222 229 234 239 257 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 28.8 27.8 26.8 25.9 25.1 24.3 22.7 22.5 23.1 22.7 22.6 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 162 160 158 152 142 131 122 114 105 88 85 92 88 87 89 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.5 -50.0 -50.4 -49.6 -49.8 -49.6 -49.8 -49.6 -49.8 -49.7 -50.1 -50.6 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 76 76 74 72 67 61 54 51 51 51 55 57 57 58 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 21 22 24 26 27 25 26 24 24 21 19 16 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 40 42 37 27 22 27 32 55 39 38 18 26 9 5 -16 -16 -38 200 MB DIV 97 80 86 65 53 52 23 14 0 0 0 10 15 2 13 8 -11 700-850 TADV -14 -14 -7 -7 -8 -1 -6 1 -4 8 4 7 8 9 9 21 22 LAND (KM) 972 940 924 916 923 884 927 954 990 1085 1214 1323 1338 1367 1421 1529 1684 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 7 6 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 30 22 14 14 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 7. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. -0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 12. 10. 11. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 5. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 30. 35. 36. 29. 26. 19. 14. 7. 0. -6. -15. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.9 113.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092026 ISELLE 08/23/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 9.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 6.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 4.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -64.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.65 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 42.8% 28.6% 20.7% 14.5% 28.3% 40.1% 15.6% Logistic: 10.5% 36.3% 12.4% 8.1% 3.4% 6.4% 2.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 7.4% 9.7% 5.2% 2.2% 0.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 10.3% 29.6% 15.4% 10.3% 6.3% 11.9% 14.2% 5.3% DTOPS: 5.0% 42.0% 21.0% 5.0% 4.0% 13.0% 8.0% 1.0% SDCON: 7.6% 35.8% 18.2% 7.6% 5.1% 12.4% 11.1% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092026 ISELLE 08/23/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##