* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082026 08/14/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 22 23 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 22 23 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 23 21 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 7 5 5 5 10 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 1 7 6 3 0 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 312 247 235 291 302 313 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 146 146 146 147 147 145 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 58 57 56 56 55 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 46 54 55 54 59 48 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 12 11 4 26 17 0 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 6 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2219 2282 2339 2248 2156 1923 1698 1465 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.4 15.2 15.2 15.1 15.0 15.0 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.0 132.6 133.2 134.1 135.0 137.3 139.5 141.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 9 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 26 25 28 24 24 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -5. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 132.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082026 HERNAN 08/14/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.72 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.25 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.67 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -6.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4.4% 3.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 1.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082026 HERNAN 08/14/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##