* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082026 08/14/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 30 29 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 30 29 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 30 28 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 17 6 5 6 3 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 2 6 4 5 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 327 326 251 244 250 300 309 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 147 147 148 147 149 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 57 56 55 57 55 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 23 34 40 44 48 55 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 1 10 5 -1 8 7 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -1 0 1 1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2219 2278 2337 2269 2176 1998 1774 1538 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.4 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.6 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.0 132.5 133.0 134.0 134.9 136.7 138.9 141.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 9 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 25 26 26 25 22 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):185/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.6 132.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082026 HERNAN 08/14/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.68 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.25 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.69 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 6.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082026 HERNAN 08/14/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##