* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082026 08/13/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 38 36 34 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 38 36 34 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 36 33 30 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 23 23 23 20 13 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -2 0 4 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 272 278 289 292 287 267 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 140 140 140 143 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 61 57 56 57 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 13 12 11 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -11 2 8 26 46 52 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 47 23 9 11 16 9 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -8 -5 0 1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2077 2094 2111 2141 2171 2295 2191 1995 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.3 17.0 16.8 16.5 15.8 15.3 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.9 131.9 131.9 132.0 132.2 133.1 134.6 136.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 4 6 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 14 16 16 15 19 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.5 131.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082026 HERNAN 08/13/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.59 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.23 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.75 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -49.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.45 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 12.5% 9.4% 8.1% 5.5% 12.2% 11.8% 10.7% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.2% 3.1% 2.7% 1.8% 4.1% 4.0% 3.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.9% 2.6% 1.5% 1.3% 0.9% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082026 HERNAN 08/13/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##