* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/20/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 33 27 22 19 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 39 33 27 22 19 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 35 30 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 24 23 23 27 31 37 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 3 4 5 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 242 229 216 211 227 218 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.6 21.5 20.5 19.8 19.5 18.4 17.6 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 78 67 62 63 62 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -51.0 -52.0 -52.9 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 43 40 36 38 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 22 22 20 19 15 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 47 46 28 15 27 38 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 39 47 43 41 17 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 26 18 21 25 16 6 -3 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1248 1152 1048 935 835 653 520 440 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.9 27.2 28.6 30.0 32.9 35.0 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.0 127.3 127.5 127.6 127.7 127.7 127.5 127.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 12 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -10. -13. -18. -18. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 19. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 5. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -14. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -23. -26. -24. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.6 127.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/20/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 7.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/20/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##