* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/19/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 42 36 29 21 20 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 42 36 29 21 20 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 48 43 38 32 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 21 24 23 26 31 38 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 7 6 4 4 4 -2 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 235 243 231 225 209 223 214 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 22.8 22.1 21.2 20.5 19.4 18.4 17.6 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 91 84 74 67 62 62 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.6 -50.0 -50.3 -50.5 -51.2 -52.0 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 46 46 44 38 39 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 25 23 21 18 14 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 55 52 39 36 13 29 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 62 66 40 32 29 14 7 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 21 24 24 28 16 5 -6 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1221 1196 1183 1121 1036 821 645 528 386 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.7 24.8 26.0 27.2 30.0 32.8 35.0 36.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.7 126.1 126.4 126.9 127.3 127.5 127.5 127.6 127.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 14 12 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -11. -19. -22. -21. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -20. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -21. -29. -30. -26. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.6 125.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/19/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.02 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.01 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.51 -1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 1.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.66 0.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -46.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.41 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 6.1% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/19/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##