* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/19/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 43 39 34 25 21 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 43 39 34 25 21 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 46 41 37 32 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 21 23 20 23 26 29 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 2 6 7 1 3 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 226 233 232 236 217 211 228 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.7 23.6 23.4 22.5 20.5 19.4 18.4 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 110 99 97 88 67 62 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -50.0 -50.5 -51.1 -51.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 51 50 46 43 38 39 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 26 26 25 21 19 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 49 50 57 49 38 11 20 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 24 20 49 52 27 16 -16 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 16 22 19 20 19 16 7 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1263 1237 1223 1206 1200 992 806 674 514 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.9 22.9 24.0 25.1 27.7 30.2 32.5 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.9 125.4 125.9 126.3 126.7 127.3 127.5 127.6 127.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -18. -21. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -9. -18. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -16. -25. -29. -29. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.9 124.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/19/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.18 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.06 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 326.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 -1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 1.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.89 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -53.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.50 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 8.9% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/19/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##