* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/19/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 55 50 45 34 26 22 21 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 58 55 50 45 34 26 22 21 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 54 49 44 33 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 22 23 21 26 29 32 31 40 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 3 3 10 3 2 1 0 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 219 220 226 223 229 211 225 222 232 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.0 24.8 23.4 23.5 21.8 19.9 19.1 17.9 17.3 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 111 97 98 81 62 62 62 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.9 -50.3 -50.1 -49.8 -50.5 -50.9 -51.6 -52.5 -53.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 57 52 50 47 44 39 37 34 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 27 26 23 19 15 12 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 76 52 56 61 47 28 14 48 52 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 49 23 25 52 39 25 -9 0 11 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 13 15 22 21 18 17 8 -3 -9 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1291 1272 1265 1242 1229 1103 925 758 623 505 405 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 21.1 22.0 23.1 24.1 26.4 28.9 31.5 34.3 36.3 37.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.2 125.8 126.2 126.6 127.2 127.8 127.9 128.3 128.4 128.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 12 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -12. -20. -26. -28. -29. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 5. 10. 13. 17. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 8. 10. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -17. -25. -30. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -15. -26. -34. -38. -39. -39. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.1 124.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/19/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.15 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.06 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 384.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.47 -2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.86 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -53.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.50 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 12.3% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/19/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##