* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/18/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 57 53 49 39 30 23 20 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 57 53 49 39 30 23 20 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 57 53 47 37 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 12 18 23 23 24 28 28 35 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 7 2 1 7 1 3 -2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 238 223 225 228 230 220 210 220 224 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.3 24.9 24.6 23.7 22.3 20.6 19.3 18.3 17.7 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 116 112 109 100 86 68 62 62 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.0 -49.9 -50.3 -50.2 -49.9 -50.5 -51.0 -51.7 -52.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 59 57 51 47 47 38 38 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 28 27 27 25 21 16 12 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 86 78 48 51 49 35 9 22 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 43 52 27 34 53 38 19 7 -10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 10 12 15 21 20 24 14 4 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1274 1252 1232 1213 1205 1169 968 791 659 549 439 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.2 21.0 22.0 22.9 25.2 27.7 30.2 32.6 34.9 37.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.1 124.6 125.2 125.7 126.4 126.9 127.3 127.5 127.8 128.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -17. -24. -26. -28. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 11. 15. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -16. -25. -29. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -7. -11. -21. -30. -37. -40. -40. -40. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.3 123.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/18/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.19 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.25 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 -2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.95 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -36.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.28 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 14.4% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 4.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/18/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##