* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/18/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 58 54 50 41 33 26 20 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 58 54 50 41 33 26 20 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 58 54 49 39 30 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 10 16 22 26 27 30 30 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 6 8 3 5 3 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 244 247 218 224 232 229 207 209 216 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 25.9 25.3 24.9 24.7 23.4 21.7 19.9 18.8 17.9 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 122 116 112 110 97 80 62 62 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 -50.0 -50.4 -49.7 -50.3 -50.5 -51.3 -52.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 58 56 50 47 41 38 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 29 28 27 26 23 20 15 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 99 92 80 54 60 48 33 23 38 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 43 38 48 27 67 43 35 20 19 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 8 10 14 20 17 22 7 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1304 1282 1268 1244 1229 1196 1086 889 722 609 541 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.3 20.1 21.0 21.9 24.0 26.4 29.0 31.7 33.9 35.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.0 123.6 124.2 124.8 125.3 126.2 126.9 127.4 127.6 127.9 128.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 12 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -21. -25. -27. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -7. -13. -21. -25. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -6. -10. -19. -27. -34. -40. -41. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.5 123.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/18/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.23 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.35 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 -3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.93 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -41.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.35 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 15.5% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 5.3% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.2% 3.1% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/18/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##