* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/18/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 52 50 43 37 31 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 52 50 43 37 31 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 51 48 40 32 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 4 7 21 23 25 30 29 36 50 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 5 9 10 2 4 0 3 0 4 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 167 175 206 222 204 221 240 233 217 231 242 234 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.4 26.1 25.3 25.2 23.9 23.0 21.6 20.1 19.4 18.7 18.1 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 127 124 116 115 102 93 78 63 61 61 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -50.2 -50.3 -50.1 -49.9 -50.3 -50.7 -51.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 67 65 63 56 48 42 38 32 29 24 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 30 29 29 28 26 22 19 16 13 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 129 113 112 106 96 65 69 53 27 25 62 51 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 52 45 44 57 22 50 30 10 14 14 7 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 2 5 8 15 17 13 15 11 0 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1340 1324 1305 1290 1276 1245 1209 1075 923 838 777 729 693 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.8 20.6 22.5 24.6 26.9 29.3 31.4 33.2 35.0 36.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.1 123.6 124.2 124.8 125.9 126.6 127.5 128.2 128.8 129.5 130.3 131.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 10 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -13. -19. -26. -31. -35. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 14. 18. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -17. -21. -25. -26. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -18. -24. -32. -37. -41. -40. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.6 122.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/18/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.32 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.44 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 -3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -51.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.48 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 17.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.5% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.2% 3.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/18/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##