* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/18/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 59 57 51 45 40 33 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 59 57 51 45 40 33 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 55 52 46 38 30 24 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 2 3 6 16 18 25 25 28 26 45 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 5 5 6 6 7 3 2 0 5 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 109 142 149 213 208 215 231 243 223 229 256 246 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.3 24.9 23.6 22.4 21.0 20.2 19.4 18.9 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 131 126 122 116 112 98 86 72 63 60 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.3 -50.5 -50.2 -49.8 -50.1 -49.6 -50.2 -50.2 -50.9 -51.4 -52.0 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 68 64 61 57 48 43 39 34 30 29 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 32 31 32 31 29 27 25 23 20 18 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 139 137 123 117 114 74 78 69 58 34 35 62 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 71 50 38 26 8 43 42 38 18 14 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 3 2 7 7 13 14 12 12 0 1 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1344 1350 1339 1323 1313 1286 1261 1194 1046 957 898 876 853 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.3 20.0 21.8 23.8 25.6 27.9 29.9 31.6 33.2 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.1 122.8 123.5 124.1 124.7 125.9 126.8 127.5 128.4 129.2 129.8 130.7 131.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 10 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -22. -29. -35. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 15. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -20. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 2. -4. -9. -15. -22. -29. -35. -39. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.1 122.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/18/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.36 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 270.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 -3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -48.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.43 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 20.8% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 8.2% 2.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 9.7% 6.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.9% 6.8% 4.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/18/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##