* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/17/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 65 66 63 57 49 38 28 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 65 66 63 57 49 38 28 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 59 59 54 46 37 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 6 6 11 18 22 22 29 31 38 50 54 52 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 3 4 7 2 8 1 1 0 2 -3 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 40 95 141 149 175 212 229 232 233 221 231 246 238 226 209 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.6 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.2 23.9 23.0 22.0 20.6 19.6 18.9 19.0 19.1 18.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 139 132 127 122 115 102 92 82 68 61 59 59 62 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -49.8 -50.2 -50.5 -50.2 -49.8 -49.8 -49.4 -49.8 -50.2 -51.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 69 63 62 52 44 36 34 26 24 20 21 22 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 32 32 32 31 29 27 24 21 18 16 13 11 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 142 145 147 137 127 111 89 97 81 61 62 81 85 55 56 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 105 100 64 54 58 39 11 25 38 33 31 -9 -12 -4 -2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 2 8 7 14 14 12 5 0 3 -2 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1328 1349 1373 1346 1327 1310 1293 1264 1135 1004 904 874 898 866 832 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.5 19.3 20.8 22.6 24.8 26.5 28.7 31.3 32.9 33.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.6 122.3 122.9 123.6 124.2 125.4 126.5 127.4 127.9 128.7 129.6 130.5 131.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 13 11 7 7 13 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -12. -18. -25. -30. -38. -43. -47. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 17. 18. 14. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -8. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 11. 8. 2. -6. -17. -27. -35. -39. -44. -50. -60. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.8 121.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/17/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.41 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.73 7.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 7.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 5.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.04 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -66.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.67 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 44.5% 30.1% 20.3% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.0% 17.0% 5.8% 3.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.4% 20.5% 12.0% 7.9% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 13.0% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 8.2% 16.7% 9.5% 5.9% 4.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/17/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##