* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/17/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 62 63 61 56 51 42 32 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 62 63 61 56 51 42 32 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 58 58 55 47 38 29 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 0 3 5 4 6 17 19 28 25 33 37 51 57 43 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -4 -1 2 6 6 7 3 7 0 4 -4 -5 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 149 297 93 130 181 193 206 226 236 218 226 243 235 222 217 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.2 27.5 26.5 26.2 25.2 24.4 23.4 22.0 20.4 19.9 18.8 18.7 18.8 19.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 139 128 125 115 107 97 82 66 61 61 60 60 60 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.4 -49.8 -50.3 -50.6 -49.7 -50.0 -49.5 -49.9 -49.9 -50.6 -51.2 -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 76 74 68 65 58 48 40 35 28 24 21 20 22 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 31 31 32 32 31 29 26 23 20 17 13 14 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 134 139 140 140 131 115 86 94 87 78 71 80 88 76 48 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 113 83 79 48 43 51 11 53 26 53 20 5 -6 17 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 2 1 4 10 14 16 7 8 1 2 0 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1271 1282 1299 1306 1300 1275 1245 1239 1114 969 893 848 823 804 826 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.8 20.4 22.2 24.1 26.4 28.6 30.7 32.5 34.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.3 122.0 122.7 123.3 124.6 125.7 126.7 127.4 128.1 129.0 129.9 130.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 10 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 10 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -5. -10. -16. -23. -29. -36. -41. -45. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 15. 18. 19. 14. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 8. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -4. -9. -13. -15. -18. -16. -15. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 6. 1. -4. -13. -23. -32. -36. -42. -44. -53. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.5 120.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/17/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.45 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.79 7.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 3.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -65.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.67 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 34.1% 24.1% 18.6% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 8.6% 2.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 14.2% 8.9% 6.6% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.7% 11.1% 6.9% 4.8% 3.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/17/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##