* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/17/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 67 70 73 69 62 51 40 28 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 67 70 73 69 62 51 40 28 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 62 64 64 58 49 37 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 2 2 2 6 4 13 21 24 29 32 29 36 43 52 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 -2 -2 -2 2 7 3 7 -2 0 0 0 -2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 84 95 281 59 123 167 205 221 240 230 227 238 257 241 230 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.9 26.8 25.9 24.8 23.4 22.9 21.9 20.6 20.2 19.8 19.3 19.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 148 143 131 122 111 96 91 81 67 62 60 61 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.8 -50.4 -49.8 -50.2 -50.1 -49.9 -50.0 -49.9 -50.2 -50.1 -50.4 -50.8 -51.4 -51.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 73 69 62 53 46 41 39 31 25 16 18 22 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 30 30 32 31 30 27 24 20 16 14 14 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 128 129 136 133 136 121 92 76 77 64 44 23 45 36 27 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 85 67 59 40 54 54 24 29 34 33 3 -27 -22 -28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 2 2 3 10 15 17 17 15 1 6 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1275 1287 1305 1314 1326 1304 1258 1255 1261 1137 1027 1000 1078 1099 1114 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.4 18.0 19.4 21.2 22.8 24.5 26.4 28.3 29.6 30.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.6 121.3 122.0 122.7 124.0 125.1 126.2 127.1 127.8 128.6 129.5 130.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 8 10 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 17 10 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 419 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -25. -33. -39. -44. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 7. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -0. -5. -10. -14. -16. -14. -12. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 18. 14. 7. -4. -15. -27. -37. -45. -50. -56. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.9 119.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/17/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.51 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.71 7.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 8.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 4.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.11 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.42 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 40.9% 31.9% 23.0% 15.1% 23.9% 16.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 11.6% 3.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 17.7% 11.7% 8.4% 5.1% 8.2% 5.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 26.0% 17.0% 11.0% 10.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 8.1% 21.8% 14.3% 9.7% 7.5% 8.1% 3.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/17/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##