* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/16/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 58 64 70 78 78 71 58 45 33 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 53 58 64 70 78 78 71 58 45 33 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 57 60 65 64 56 45 34 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 11 6 1 3 7 15 23 24 33 39 37 45 52 62 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 2 2 0 4 8 1 5 0 1 1 -2 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 48 69 64 39 169 188 213 220 239 247 242 235 251 253 242 242 253 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3 26.7 25.3 24.8 23.4 22.9 22.1 21.4 20.8 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 151 147 130 116 111 96 90 82 75 69 64 65 65 67 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -49.9 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -49.6 -49.8 -49.8 -49.9 -50.2 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 81 78 77 74 67 58 46 41 34 25 16 13 15 19 20 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 30 31 33 34 35 33 29 26 22 15 9 4 2 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 87 110 121 129 133 125 114 95 80 78 87 86 26 -13 -45 -75 -68 200 MB DIV 99 97 94 86 85 55 45 37 0 34 27 -6 -22 -22 -5 -7 -21 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -5 -3 0 8 8 13 16 10 7 5 6 3 4 1 -7 LAND (KM) 1151 1202 1242 1247 1258 1263 1258 1243 1259 1274 1209 1173 1195 1263 1331 1420 1509 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.7 17.2 18.5 19.8 21.3 22.9 24.4 25.8 27.0 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.9 118.8 119.7 120.4 121.1 122.4 123.8 125.0 126.3 127.2 128.1 129.2 130.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 19 16 14 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -7. -12. -19. -26. -31. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 4. -3. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 3. -2. -7. -15. -20. -24. -24. -21. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 12. 6. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -9. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 20. 28. 28. 21. 8. -5. -17. -31. -43. -55. -65. -76. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.7 117.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/16/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.60 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 9999.0 -15.6 to -90.4 999.00 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 43.0% 24.0% 14.0% 8.0% 33.0% 18.0% 0.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/16/26 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING