* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/16/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 62 69 78 88 89 83 69 56 43 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 55 62 69 78 88 89 83 69 56 43 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 63 67 76 78 70 58 45 35 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 13 13 8 3 6 12 17 12 22 26 33 33 45 51 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 4 2 1 0 0 6 -1 4 6 1 5 -2 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 25 42 59 44 50 10 287 209 229 257 239 242 243 243 246 240 250 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.7 25.9 25.1 24.6 23.3 22.4 21.9 21.2 20.9 20.6 20.5 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 152 149 141 122 114 109 95 85 80 72 70 66 64 66 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.4 -49.8 -50.3 -50.5 -49.8 -50.2 -49.5 -50.3 -49.7 -50.1 -50.4 -50.6 -51.1 -51.5 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 78 78 76 73 66 58 49 44 40 34 30 25 19 18 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 29 31 34 35 36 36 33 29 25 21 19 15 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 73 89 111 126 136 135 123 106 84 74 63 62 62 53 33 -2 -36 200 MB DIV 89 90 94 90 73 52 -1 51 34 40 8 7 13 -16 -13 -8 -12 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -6 -6 -4 10 4 15 15 9 6 6 7 3 4 1 0 LAND (KM) 1087 1147 1214 1227 1245 1277 1260 1245 1248 1261 1251 1207 1234 1264 1313 1383 1466 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.8 19.2 20.6 22.0 23.6 25.1 26.3 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.9 118.0 119.0 119.8 120.6 121.9 123.2 124.4 125.6 126.7 127.7 128.8 130.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 10 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 25 21 19 16 13 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -3. -9. -15. -21. -26. -31. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 1. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 14. 10. 5. -0. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 16. 8. 0. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 19. 28. 38. 39. 33. 19. 6. -7. -19. -27. -38. -49. -61. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.6 116.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/16/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.62 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.44 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 9999.0 -15.6 to -90.4 999.00 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 26.0% 74.0% 57.0% 31.0% 19.0% 25.0% 18.0% 0.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/16/26 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING