* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/16/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 64 72 82 92 97 90 80 64 52 40 29 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 56 64 72 82 92 97 90 80 64 52 40 29 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 54 59 65 70 79 84 79 67 53 42 33 27 22 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 7 12 14 4 8 7 10 16 13 22 27 29 35 38 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 4 4 4 0 -1 2 5 0 4 0 2 1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 291 14 20 47 39 65 179 226 227 240 247 253 244 246 241 242 243 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.2 26.6 25.2 24.8 23.9 23.3 22.1 21.6 20.9 20.7 20.9 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 155 154 153 146 129 115 110 101 95 82 77 70 68 71 78 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -49.8 -50.1 -50.4 -50.2 -50.3 -50.1 -50.3 -49.8 -49.8 -50.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 73 75 75 79 79 76 72 64 55 51 42 37 31 25 23 20 15 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 27 29 34 35 37 36 35 31 28 24 20 16 13 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 70 77 94 109 124 136 131 113 100 73 71 61 66 50 42 23 5 200 MB DIV 77 90 93 79 86 45 32 20 24 5 17 5 -6 17 -11 -12 -15 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -7 -8 0 7 4 17 18 10 7 9 6 4 3 0 LAND (KM) 1023 1075 1135 1175 1203 1212 1239 1235 1219 1245 1307 1324 1294 1313 1403 1564 1782 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.5 18.7 19.9 21.3 22.5 23.6 24.8 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.9 117.9 118.7 119.5 120.8 122.3 123.6 124.7 125.9 127.2 128.5 129.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 22 18 17 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 71.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. -0. -5. -10. -16. -21. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 10. 10. 15. 18. 20. 13. 8. 3. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 10. 14. 22. 20. 10. 1. -5. -9. -13. -15. -15. -14. -15. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 22. 32. 42. 47. 41. 30. 14. 2. -10. -21. -31. -41. -53. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.5 115.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/16/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.64 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.58 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 9999.0 -15.6 to -90.4 999.00 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 27.0% 58.0% 43.0% 35.0% 32.0% 28.0% 22.0% 0.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/16/26 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING