* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/16/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 56 64 71 84 89 88 81 69 57 49 39 28 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 56 64 71 84 89 88 81 69 57 49 39 28 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 52 56 61 71 80 82 74 61 50 40 33 26 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 6 8 11 10 4 4 6 12 14 18 21 27 29 32 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 7 6 3 5 2 -1 1 2 -1 3 5 5 10 0 5 0 SHEAR DIR 244 296 4 36 58 59 155 245 237 232 233 246 253 253 266 263 238 SST (C) 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.4 27.2 25.7 25.1 24.8 23.5 22.4 21.7 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 158 155 153 148 135 120 114 110 97 85 78 74 75 75 81 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -49.8 -50.4 -49.7 -50.1 -49.4 -49.9 -49.4 -49.9 -50.3 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 72 73 73 76 73 67 61 54 51 50 46 39 40 36 31 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 24 26 28 32 34 36 36 33 30 28 24 20 17 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 54 72 80 92 114 144 140 122 109 84 65 54 56 34 13 -3 -4 200 MB DIV 75 92 105 79 83 66 25 -1 3 5 31 18 0 0 -12 -9 16 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -4 -5 -5 5 2 10 12 16 8 6 10 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 969 1017 1077 1116 1161 1206 1257 1252 1269 1280 1308 1340 1328 1366 1455 1618 1839 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.4 17.2 18.2 19.3 20.6 21.9 23.2 24.5 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.9 117.0 117.9 118.7 120.4 122.0 123.2 124.7 125.9 127.0 128.3 129.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 9 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 31 27 25 20 18 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 2. -3. -8. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 18. 20. 16. 11. 8. 3. -2. -4. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 18. 9. 1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 19. 26. 39. 44. 43. 36. 24. 12. 4. -6. -17. -26. -37. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.4 114.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/16/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.69 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.25 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 9999.0 -15.6 to -90.4 999.00 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 15.0% 53.0% 34.0% 12.0% 8.0% 13.0% 21.0% 5.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/16/26 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING