* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/15/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 60 69 77 91 98 96 87 74 61 52 42 32 22 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 52 60 69 77 91 98 96 87 74 61 52 42 32 22 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 50 56 62 68 82 95 92 82 69 55 45 38 32 26 21 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 2 4 7 16 5 5 5 12 15 14 21 21 25 32 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 6 6 6 0 2 0 2 4 0 5 0 8 9 6 10 SHEAR DIR 256 256 324 23 59 66 85 164 220 218 235 243 248 257 259 260 261 SST (C) 29.8 29.1 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.5 27.2 25.8 25.3 25.0 24.0 23.0 21.9 21.5 21.1 21.2 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 157 158 156 154 149 135 121 116 112 102 91 80 76 72 73 74 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.1 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -49.9 -49.6 -49.5 -49.4 -49.7 -49.5 -50.0 -50.8 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 68 68 66 61 53 51 46 44 41 38 35 38 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 22 24 26 31 35 36 36 33 30 27 24 22 17 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 32 57 81 94 115 161 155 137 110 97 70 68 51 49 27 9 -2 200 MB DIV 58 79 93 94 76 65 46 8 -8 -2 8 11 -7 -16 0 -10 6 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -8 -6 -2 -6 -2 3 4 14 15 11 9 7 4 3 -6 LAND (KM) 919 976 1048 1097 1153 1245 1310 1290 1315 1350 1373 1389 1350 1367 1442 1570 1718 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.9 17.8 19.1 20.4 21.6 22.8 24.1 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.1 115.4 116.7 117.7 118.6 120.6 122.3 123.5 125.1 126.5 127.5 128.5 129.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 32 24 26 21 18 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 73.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 4. -1. -6. -10. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 22. 24. 20. 15. 11. 6. 3. -1. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 22. 20. 10. 1. -5. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 24. 32. 46. 53. 51. 42. 29. 16. 7. -3. -13. -23. -34. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.6 114.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/15/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.70 12.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 8.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -9.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.56 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 7.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 8.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.25 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -74.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.78 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 60% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.4% 62.5% 44.5% 35.4% 20.7% 44.9% 60.5% 16.0% Logistic: 33.0% 64.5% 38.9% 32.4% 4.6% 6.8% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 29.0% 19.3% 12.3% 8.5% 0.4% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 28.5% 48.8% 31.9% 25.4% 8.6% 17.8% 20.3% 5.4% DTOPS: 22.0% 35.0% 15.0% 8.0% 7.0% 22.0% 36.0% 3.0% SDCON: 25.2% 41.9% 23.4% 16.7% 7.8% 19.9% 28.1% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/15/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##