* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/15/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 56 63 76 86 91 83 75 68 61 53 43 36 27 16 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 56 63 76 86 91 83 75 68 61 53 43 36 27 16 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 55 60 74 88 95 86 74 63 53 45 38 32 26 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 1 5 9 12 7 1 5 11 12 16 17 22 26 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 3 1 4 0 2 8 4 0 6 1 1 8 0 5 SHEAR DIR 319 284 232 326 20 48 67 86 145 175 256 267 268 264 269 263 271 SST (C) 30.2 29.9 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.0 25.7 25.2 24.7 23.8 23.1 22.3 21.9 21.6 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 169 165 159 159 157 153 149 133 120 115 109 99 92 84 80 76 71 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.6 -50.2 -50.2 -50.4 -49.7 -50.4 -49.6 -49.9 -49.4 -49.7 -49.2 -49.8 -50.2 -50.6 -50.9 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 68 70 71 66 57 49 44 40 35 33 32 32 31 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 20 21 24 28 33 34 32 30 29 27 24 20 18 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 15 30 52 69 84 136 159 141 129 109 81 67 53 38 9 -17 -51 200 MB DIV 49 48 74 90 109 70 69 40 -9 -9 8 3 -14 -36 -14 4 -7 700-850 TADV -9 -5 -3 -7 -5 0 -1 3 0 7 7 11 4 5 2 1 -5 LAND (KM) 900 946 1008 1065 1129 1223 1267 1304 1304 1307 1318 1363 1394 1383 1399 1454 1516 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.6 16.2 17.0 18.0 19.2 20.5 22.0 23.2 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.9 114.2 115.4 116.5 117.5 119.4 121.0 122.4 123.8 125.1 126.4 127.6 128.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 30 29 25 17 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 14. 12. 8. 4. 1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 16. 22. 21. 19. 16. 13. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 12. 6. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 23. 36. 46. 51. 43. 35. 29. 21. 13. 3. -4. -13. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.3 112.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/15/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 9.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.68 7.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.53 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.62 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 34.2% 29.5% 25.8% 16.1% 31.2% 44.5% 20.6% Logistic: 6.2% 31.1% 14.6% 9.0% 1.3% 4.2% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 6.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 8.6% 22.1% 15.0% 11.8% 5.8% 11.9% 15.3% 6.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/15/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##