* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052026 07/15/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 44 52 59 76 86 89 86 80 71 64 57 47 41 33 25 V (KT) LAND 35 38 44 52 59 76 86 89 86 80 71 64 57 47 41 33 25 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 47 52 66 81 89 87 79 68 57 47 39 32 27 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 1 2 5 10 12 8 2 3 10 11 12 14 20 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 1 2 1 4 4 1 1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 304 338 101 348 348 37 43 47 37 198 207 256 257 267 261 273 283 SST (C) 30.3 30.1 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.2 28.8 28.2 26.5 25.5 24.8 24.5 23.9 22.6 21.4 21.0 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 168 166 162 156 152 146 128 118 110 107 101 87 74 70 74 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -50.3 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -49.7 -49.9 -50.2 -51.0 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 72 71 72 72 69 62 59 55 47 37 33 35 33 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 16 18 19 24 27 28 28 28 27 25 24 20 18 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 2 16 34 56 77 106 151 151 132 108 89 50 48 25 10 -21 -31 200 MB DIV 66 71 72 95 89 104 77 77 35 10 -5 6 -4 -3 -38 -9 -20 700-850 TADV -16 -9 -5 -3 -5 -4 -7 0 3 3 7 8 7 6 8 2 0 LAND (KM) 827 938 986 1026 1078 1182 1251 1258 1293 1289 1280 1315 1391 1383 1324 1330 1432 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.8 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.4 16.1 17.2 18.3 19.6 21.0 22.2 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.5 113.8 115.0 116.1 118.0 119.7 121.1 122.6 124.0 125.2 126.5 127.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 30 39 41 35 26 17 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 21. 21. 21. 20. 17. 14. 10. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 20. 22. 23. 19. 16. 13. 8. 5. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 16. 8. 0. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 17. 24. 41. 51. 54. 51. 46. 36. 29. 22. 12. 6. -2. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.8 111.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 ELIDA 07/15/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 9.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.75 7.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 1.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.37 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.43 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 29.2% 25.9% 22.2% 15.1% 30.4% 40.5% 38.3% Logistic: 7.3% 41.8% 20.5% 13.7% 2.2% 15.1% 6.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 1.6% 6.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% Consensus: 6.9% 25.7% 16.3% 12.2% 5.8% 15.5% 15.9% 13.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 41.0% 22.0% 4.0% 3.0% 11.0% 31.0% 2.0% SDCON: 4.4% 33.3% 19.1% 8.1% 4.4% 13.2% 23.4% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 ELIDA 07/15/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##