* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052026 07/15/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 46 56 72 86 96 98 88 79 70 63 54 46 37 26 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 46 56 72 86 96 98 88 79 70 63 54 46 37 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 37 41 54 73 94 102 92 76 63 54 46 39 33 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 2 3 1 5 9 11 3 6 4 10 13 15 12 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 -2 0 0 3 0 5 7 4 1 3 0 0 4 1 SHEAR DIR 298 320 354 33 24 40 51 61 133 248 202 221 245 273 287 299 306 SST (C) 30.8 30.3 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.5 29.1 28.7 27.7 26.1 25.3 24.8 24.0 23.7 22.6 21.6 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 173 170 167 168 166 159 155 151 141 124 116 110 102 98 87 77 74 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.4 -50.8 -49.9 -50.3 -49.6 -50.0 -49.5 -50.1 -49.7 -50.0 -49.9 -50.3 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 73 73 71 72 69 60 52 49 41 35 32 28 27 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 17 20 23 28 32 35 33 31 29 27 25 22 19 15 850 MB ENV VOR -4 3 17 34 57 85 128 153 149 130 113 84 69 63 55 26 6 200 MB DIV 71 66 75 86 97 120 104 70 51 -8 -21 12 42 -2 -20 -25 -18 700-850 TADV -10 -19 -10 -7 -5 -3 -3 -5 9 5 7 7 7 6 1 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 722 834 951 987 1038 1139 1212 1228 1283 1293 1275 1286 1343 1396 1380 1358 1387 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.0 15.5 16.6 17.6 18.8 20.2 21.4 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.7 111.1 112.5 113.7 114.9 116.9 118.5 120.0 121.8 123.2 124.4 125.6 127.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 33 29 38 42 27 22 13 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 24. 26. 26. 26. 24. 22. 19. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 13. 23. 30. 26. 23. 19. 15. 11. 7. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 9. 1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 16. 26. 42. 56. 66. 68. 58. 49. 40. 33. 24. 16. 7. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 109.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 FIVE 07/15/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 12.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.69 7.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -7.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 4.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.35 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -56.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.54 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 66% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 46.9% 31.1% 20.2% 0.0% 43.9% 66.3% 49.0% Logistic: 18.3% 71.4% 45.2% 36.5% 8.4% 48.0% 15.9% 2.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 24.1% 13.1% 5.5% 0.4% 3.1% 1.7% 0.5% Consensus: 10.1% 47.5% 29.8% 20.7% 2.9% 31.7% 27.9% 17.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 19.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 9.0% 26.0% 17.0% SDCON: 5.5% 33.2% 17.4% 10.8% 1.9% 20.3% 26.9% 17.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 FIVE 07/15/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##