* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP052026 07/14/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 42 51 67 81 92 94 86 79 70 62 55 46 36 24 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 42 51 67 81 92 94 86 79 70 62 55 46 36 24 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 40 50 68 88 98 92 79 67 57 48 40 32 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 5 12 17 13 6 3 8 16 18 18 27 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 0 -3 -1 1 2 0 9 5 3 1 1 1 5 3 SHEAR DIR 278 283 300 355 18 68 85 74 61 105 205 220 252 285 267 254 239 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.6 29.0 28.7 28.0 26.3 25.5 25.0 24.2 23.9 22.2 21.4 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 169 168 166 161 154 151 144 126 118 113 104 100 83 75 73 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.0 -49.9 -49.7 -49.7 -49.5 -49.6 -49.7 -49.9 -49.7 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 72 68 69 69 69 65 65 59 49 44 39 35 33 32 30 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 16 19 21 26 33 34 32 31 29 26 25 21 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR -1 6 21 30 50 93 132 177 178 157 123 104 82 84 67 53 39 200 MB DIV 63 67 77 86 73 109 103 55 77 -18 -23 -19 1 -1 -9 -9 -7 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -17 -12 -7 -5 -3 -3 -5 6 3 8 7 9 7 8 6 LAND (KM) 645 757 889 937 983 1103 1212 1253 1297 1327 1321 1338 1386 1410 1350 1326 1380 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 14 12 11 10 9 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 29 35 38 33 22 16 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. 24. 21. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 25. 30. 27. 24. 20. 15. 12. 7. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 15. 7. 0. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 21. 37. 51. 62. 64. 56. 49. 40. 32. 25. 16. 6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 108.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052026 INVEST 07/14/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.93 8.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.72 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.33 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -54.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.52 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 61% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 31.7% 21.0% 17.4% 0.0% 34.1% 61.2% 51.4% Logistic: 9.7% 46.2% 23.7% 14.5% 2.9% 16.2% 4.8% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.3% 16.7% 7.3% 2.2% 0.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 31.5% 17.4% 11.4% 1.1% 17.4% 22.2% 17.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 20.0% 8.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 17.0% 22.0% SDCON: 4.0% 25.7% 12.7% 6.2% 1.0% 10.7% 19.6% 19.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052026 INVEST 07/14/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##