* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042026 07/03/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 33 30 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 33 30 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 29 26 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 22 25 27 29 36 45 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 4 8 7 8 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 260 266 266 262 260 258 263 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.4 25.3 25.1 24.0 23.4 23.4 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 116 115 112 101 95 95 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.8 -49.5 -49.3 -49.3 -49.5 -50.5 -51.0 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 55 52 48 46 40 36 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 14 14 11 9 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 66 57 69 62 21 -8 -14 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 53 41 19 12 36 -1 0 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 4 1 0 4 2 8 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1644 1612 1583 1577 1573 1594 1633 1638 1642 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.3 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.5 127.7 127.8 128.2 128.5 129.3 130.2 131.5 132.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -9. -15. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -5. -7. -15. -21. -27. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.5 127.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042026 DOUGLAS 07/03/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.43 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.85 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -45.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.40 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042026 DOUGLAS 07/03/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##