* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042026 07/01/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 37 36 34 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 37 36 34 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 35 32 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 9 9 13 21 22 25 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 11 13 8 6 5 7 6 7 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 196 202 217 220 234 261 273 269 269 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.7 25.1 24.9 24.4 24.5 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 127 125 123 118 112 110 105 107 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.3 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.3 -50.0 -50.0 -50.8 -51.3 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 65 62 55 44 38 33 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 18 17 15 13 11 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 56 60 52 61 83 72 48 23 15 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 112 126 107 77 53 46 30 0 3 -20 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 2 2 4 4 3 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1830 1785 1742 1711 1681 1636 1630 1692 1765 1875 1930 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.6 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.9 126.9 126.9 127.0 127.1 127.5 128.2 129.3 130.4 131.9 133.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -15. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. -7. -12. -16. -22. -26. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.5 126.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042026 DOUGLAS 07/01/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.52 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.28 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.63 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.95 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -48.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.45 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 16.9% 12.4% 9.9% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.9% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.3% 5.2% 3.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 4.6% 3.1% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042026 DOUGLAS 07/01/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##