* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042026 07/01/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 35 34 31 27 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 35 34 31 27 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 31 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 5 8 7 6 12 16 20 21 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 12 13 10 9 7 7 8 12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 230 186 202 208 241 249 251 272 272 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.1 24.9 24.6 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 132 128 128 124 119 112 110 108 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.3 -50.6 -51.0 -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -50.7 -51.2 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 69 66 57 44 36 31 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 19 18 18 15 13 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 54 56 62 54 76 83 59 36 20 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 116 124 122 82 51 61 54 -10 7 -20 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 2 2 3 1 5 2 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1908 1865 1823 1785 1750 1696 1677 1709 1778 1884 2018 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.6 18.6 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.7 126.8 126.8 126.9 127.0 127.3 128.0 128.9 130.0 131.4 133.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -11. -13. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -5. -11. -16. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 126.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042026 FOUR 07/01/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.62 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.41 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.97 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -60.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.61 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 18.7% 14.0% 11.3% 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.7% 26.5% 17.2% 7.4% 0.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 10.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.6% 15.5% 10.8% 6.4% 0.1% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.8% 8.7% 5.9% 3.2% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042026 FOUR 07/01/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##