* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032026 06/09/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 35 32 32 33 35 37 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 35 32 32 33 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 35 34 33 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 31 30 25 21 21 13 14 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -4 -5 -7 -4 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 20 20 18 27 26 2 353 342 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.5 30.2 30.2 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 167 167 168 168 165 165 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 7 5 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 81 79 80 79 81 83 82 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 11 11 11 11 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 78 70 65 72 82 75 78 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 84 103 94 95 91 122 94 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 1 1 -2 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 51 42 34 50 43 10 -4 -63 -163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.5 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.8 87.8 87.9 88.1 88.3 89.1 90.0 90.7 91.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 3 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 7 8 8 9 6 4 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 14. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.4 87.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032026 CRISTINA 06/09/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.60 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.07 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -14.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 16.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 5.5% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 2.7% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032026 CRISTINA 06/09/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##