* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032026 06/08/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 39 37 35 37 39 44 50 49 50 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 39 37 35 37 39 35 30 28 27 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 44 45 44 43 40 39 40 36 31 28 27 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 36 34 32 32 24 16 12 11 2 3 7 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 3 0 -3 -3 -5 -3 -2 -1 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 21 16 17 21 24 33 10 4 347 11 313 330 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.5 30.5 30.0 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 160 160 160 163 166 166 166 170 170 164 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.3 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 5 7 5 6 5 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 78 78 80 80 80 80 83 82 79 76 80 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 14 13 12 12 13 14 13 11 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 84 80 83 76 77 78 80 87 103 93 93 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 78 97 94 102 117 99 117 90 127 74 71 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -3 0 0 1 2 -1 0 0 0 -2 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 126 118 102 102 103 81 74 65 -26 -58 -78 -32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 6 8 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 20 22 22 21 12 9 3 5 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 31. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -18. -21. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -4. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 4. 10. 9. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.2 87.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032026 CRISTINA 06/08/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -15.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032026 CRISTINA 06/08/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##