* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 06/06/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 23 24 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 23 24 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 24 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 14 18 20 21 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 1 0 3 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 147 127 117 129 134 120 122 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.2 31.1 31.1 31.3 31.6 31.5 30.9 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 170 169 169 169 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 80 81 79 79 76 63 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 13 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 67 87 81 81 109 94 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 126 164 126 96 78 101 126 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -1 0 0 -3 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 347 293 239 187 138 23 -73 -131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 31 26 24 31 16 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -8. -7. -2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.3 102.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 06/06/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 149.9 30.0 to 148.5 1.00 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.48 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 2.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.74 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -12.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 7.5% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 4.4% 10.1% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.3% 3.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 3.4% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 2.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 2.2% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 06/06/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##