* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 06/06/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 38 26 20 19 19 22 27 30 30 28 28 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 38 26 25 26 27 31 36 38 33 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 27 28 25 25 26 27 29 27 26 23 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 15 20 24 24 30 20 18 11 3 2 3 13 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -5 -1 1 -2 6 4 5 4 4 9 7 6 6 9 9 SHEAR DIR 173 157 134 121 127 114 108 122 102 75 64 30 246 140 209 214 234 SST (C) 31.1 31.2 31.2 31.1 31.1 31.2 31.5 31.3 30.6 30.0 29.8 30.1 28.8 27.3 22.8 19.7 18.0 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 170 169 168 169 169 171 166 164 167 153 137 90 61 61 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -50.8 -51.0 -50.1 -50.9 -50.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 8 7 8 6 8 4 5 2 2 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 77 77 74 69 59 52 51 53 53 53 49 49 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 10 11 11 13 14 16 7 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 45 58 78 73 89 99 112 92 62 58 48 30 3 2 -15 -12 200 MB DIV 129 129 150 114 104 104 117 96 -9 -28 -34 -3 9 16 7 28 43 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -2 1 0 -1 -6 2 -2 -5 0 -6 0 -8 -1 -5 0 LAND (KM) 455 414 356 313 256 184 104 8 -84 -160 -118 79 95 50 -38 -62 -2 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.9 16.9 18.1 19.5 20.9 22.1 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.2 102.8 102.2 101.7 101.1 100.4 100.2 100.3 100.8 102.3 104.2 106.4 108.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 5 3 5 6 8 11 11 12 11 10 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 46 45 39 35 27 22 29 6 6 6 5 16 5 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -4. -1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 26. 28. 30. 29. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. -0. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 6. 0. -1. -1. 2. 7. 10. 10. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.8 103.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 06/06/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 149.3 30.0 to 148.5 1.00 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.58 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.78 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.40 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -38.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.30 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 7.1% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4% 2.4% 9.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 3.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 1.6% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 06/06/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##