* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 06/06/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 33 33 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 33 33 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 27 25 23 25 26 27 29 28 27 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 16 14 18 25 34 31 22 24 19 12 9 11 17 24 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -6 -5 -2 0 -2 5 5 3 4 0 2 1 5 2 5 SHEAR DIR 205 183 165 153 130 123 112 114 106 79 72 79 115 168 174 193 199 SST (C) 30.9 30.9 31.0 31.1 31.3 31.4 31.5 31.4 30.7 30.0 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.0 27.6 25.4 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 169 169 169 169 168 169 170 165 162 163 163 155 141 118 89 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 6 5 4 4 1 2 0 700-500 MB RH 73 74 73 71 72 68 69 64 55 51 51 53 52 49 49 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 11 11 13 14 13 10 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 46 45 56 70 75 105 109 106 61 59 47 55 19 37 -16 11 200 MB DIV 106 126 135 160 109 84 132 126 74 -24 -34 -19 5 7 27 17 40 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 0 1 -1 -2 -9 0 -2 0 -2 2 0 4 3 0 LAND (KM) 479 451 405 365 311 244 177 74 -42 -98 -154 -43 60 97 65 4 38 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.4 16.2 17.4 18.6 19.9 21.3 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.1 103.9 103.5 103.1 102.5 101.5 100.7 100.2 100.3 101.3 103.0 104.8 106.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 5 6 5 4 6 7 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 41 40 37 34 29 27 25 30 5 6 5 7 11 6 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -7. -5. -1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -5. -9. -12. -13. -12. -10. -8. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. -4. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 13. 6. -3. -7. -8. -7. -2. 0. 2. 1. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 104.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 06/06/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.6 30.0 to 148.5 1.00 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.79 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.38 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -24.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.11 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 6.6% 2.3% 1.1% 0.5% 1.1% 2.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 06/06/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##