* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 06/06/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 28 31 37 42 37 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 28 31 37 42 37 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 29 27 24 24 26 29 28 25 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 13 17 16 20 25 28 30 25 26 19 10 7 9 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -5 -4 -2 0 7 0 3 0 1 5 5 6 6 5 SHEAR DIR 214 205 184 164 150 146 109 108 112 89 81 85 91 124 147 193 201 SST (C) 30.8 30.8 30.9 31.0 31.2 31.3 31.4 31.5 31.4 30.7 30.1 30.1 30.1 28.4 25.7 24.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 169 169 169 168 168 168 169 170 165 166 167 150 121 105 115 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -50.7 -51.0 -50.2 -51.2 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 6 6 8 6 8 6 8 4 6 2 3 0 3 700-500 MB RH 71 72 73 72 70 68 67 65 56 50 47 48 47 50 48 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 9 12 12 15 17 15 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 42 47 48 54 71 107 107 106 75 54 52 58 52 36 27 1 200 MB DIV 70 99 118 131 150 89 104 106 108 24 -18 -30 -10 -11 9 15 11 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 0 2 -2 0 -4 0 -8 3 -5 LAND (KM) 483 458 426 380 341 281 234 185 101 1 -77 -83 70 140 5 -16 38 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.5 16.3 17.5 18.7 19.7 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.2 104.1 103.8 103.4 103.0 102.1 101.5 101.1 101.0 101.3 102.3 104.0 106.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 5 4 4 3 3 4 8 8 10 13 13 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 38 33 32 26 27 26 30 6 6 4 11 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -6. -4. -0. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 25. 29. 32. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -11. -13. -13. -12. -9. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 10. 3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 11. 17. 22. 17. 5. -4. -5. -5. -0. 2. 3. 1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 104.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 06/06/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.2 30.0 to 148.5 1.00 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.72 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.38 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.96 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -49.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.46 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 17.3% 7.3% 3.4% 2.0% 3.0% 3.7% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% Consensus: 1.0% 6.5% 2.8% 1.2% 0.7% 1.1% 1.3% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 06/06/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##