* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 06/05/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 24 29 37 42 40 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 24 29 37 42 40 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 29 29 26 22 20 19 19 19 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 12 17 21 21 20 25 33 36 33 36 33 28 23 26 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 0 -3 -4 -2 2 7 2 1 0 1 10 10 11 9 SHEAR DIR 215 211 204 188 177 140 143 95 95 95 83 77 83 78 85 83 95 SST (C) 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.3 31.4 31.5 31.4 31.3 31.3 31.3 31.1 30.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 168 168 168 168 168 167 168 169 167 168 169 170 170 171 153 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 72 71 68 64 64 61 56 48 47 45 47 44 45 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 8 10 12 17 19 19 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 21 36 47 48 71 80 106 106 102 84 72 69 74 35 57 43 200 MB DIV 53 53 87 110 116 118 84 115 118 67 0 -18 -12 -8 -32 -15 1 700-850 TADV 0 1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -5 -10 -4 1 4 0 -6 -2 -8 -7 LAND (KM) 495 470 442 403 370 338 302 301 269 176 88 76 106 149 172 246 315 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.0 14.8 14.9 15.5 16.2 16.5 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.5 104.4 104.2 104.0 103.7 103.1 102.5 102.1 101.6 100.9 100.5 100.9 101.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 4 5 2 3 4 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 36 34 31 31 28 28 29 25 30 30 22 25 22 19 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -5. -5. -2. 2. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 21. 24. 28. 32. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -9. -15. -19. -22. -24. -23. -23. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 20. 6. 2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 17. 22. 20. 2. -5. -12. -11. -10. -8. -8. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 104.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 06/05/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.99 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.41 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.57 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.36 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.94 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -22.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.09 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% Consensus: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 06/05/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##