* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 06/05/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 21 23 27 33 41 41 31 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 21 23 27 33 41 41 31 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 28 30 28 23 19 17 17 17 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 14 14 17 20 24 21 33 35 36 29 29 28 29 28 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 -2 -1 -4 -2 -3 2 9 5 -1 6 0 7 5 2 SHEAR DIR 211 209 202 206 191 169 160 115 94 87 92 86 69 68 79 85 100 SST (C) 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.9 31.0 31.1 31.2 31.2 31.3 31.4 31.4 31.2 30.8 30.8 31.0 29.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 168 169 168 167 167 167 167 169 169 168 169 170 171 162 126 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -50.6 -50.9 -50.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 8 7 8 6 6 2 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 72 73 69 64 59 60 55 51 48 48 45 48 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 5 8 9 12 16 21 22 18 10 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 21 37 46 63 84 101 111 112 96 84 69 61 53 54 45 200 MB DIV 90 60 62 101 110 116 107 107 111 101 32 -22 -23 -23 -12 -9 16 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 -5 -7 -10 -3 0 -2 -2 -3 -10 -10 LAND (KM) 489 465 436 401 349 293 274 295 311 252 154 74 32 19 44 136 316 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.5 15.2 14.9 15.2 15.9 16.7 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.0 103.8 103.7 103.4 103.0 102.8 102.7 102.5 101.9 101.3 101.3 101.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 4 2 1 2 2 4 5 4 5 6 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 41 42 39 36 31 27 25 28 29 24 24 26 5 5 22 13 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -6. -4. 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 22. 26. 30. 34. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -13. -18. -20. -21. -20. -20. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 13. 23. 27. 21. 9. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 21. 21. 11. -4. -14. -11. -9. -7. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.9 104.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 06/05/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.99 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.58 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 42.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.39 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 6.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 06/05/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##