* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012026 06/04/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 34 33 33 32 29 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 34 33 33 32 29 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 32 30 27 25 23 21 21 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 13 15 16 13 16 17 6 7 15 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 0 2 3 -1 -8 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 125 130 126 130 118 119 127 155 10 12 6 340 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 141 137 134 136 136 136 138 139 141 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 56 57 54 54 52 46 46 46 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 0 -18 -21 -11 0 8 17 25 30 33 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 41 22 12 6 6 7 -35 -33 -33 -33 -40 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2311 2312 2316 2347 2378 2415 2351 2309 2303 2285 2246 2191 2127 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.8 13.6 13.1 13.0 12.7 12.2 11.9 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.4 130.0 130.6 131.3 131.9 132.9 133.6 134.2 134.3 134.6 135.2 135.9 136.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 1 3 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 24 21 18 14 7 9 16 18 22 23 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 22. 24. 25. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -6. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.9 129.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 AMANDA 06/04/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.65 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -22.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.09 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 14.6% 12.4% 10.6% 8.2% 15.3% 13.7% 11.5% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.1% 4.2% 3.6% 2.8% 5.1% 4.6% 3.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 3.5% 2.6% 1.8% 1.4% 3.0% 2.8% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 AMANDA 06/04/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##