* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012026 06/04/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 37 39 41 41 39 37 37 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 37 39 41 41 39 37 37 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 34 33 32 31 29 28 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 9 12 12 16 17 10 2 12 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 2 0 0 -2 -1 1 2 -5 -10 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 103 116 116 110 103 97 108 115 151 321 2 358 337 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 145 144 142 135 136 137 137 139 138 141 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 62 60 60 58 55 54 48 46 45 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 11 2 -10 -17 -7 1 7 13 16 16 19 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 50 22 34 19 13 7 -9 -33 -36 -32 -59 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2330 2327 2320 2340 2363 2433 2355 2323 2305 2288 2266 2230 2181 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.8 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.5 13.5 13.0 12.7 12.4 12.0 11.7 11.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.9 129.5 130.0 130.6 131.2 132.7 133.6 134.1 134.4 134.7 135.1 135.6 136.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 21 24 21 18 7 10 18 21 23 26 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 24. 25. 27. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -4. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.2 128.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 AMANDA 06/04/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.68 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -17.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.02 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 16.7% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 14.9% 12.4% Logistic: 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 4.5% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 3.0% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 AMANDA 06/04/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##