* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012026 06/03/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 43 46 50 51 48 42 41 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 43 46 50 51 48 42 41 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 42 42 42 42 40 37 36 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 10 11 12 11 10 15 19 14 5 7 14 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 -2 0 2 -4 -6 -2 1 -1 -8 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 90 91 98 105 92 87 102 110 134 189 338 352 331 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 147 146 144 137 136 137 136 136 137 140 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 64 66 65 63 61 56 58 54 49 45 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 12 8 4 -3 -9 -4 2 13 19 18 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 85 60 56 45 18 31 -3 -28 -48 -41 -47 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2361 2378 2389 2391 2395 2440 2379 2325 2262 2230 2233 2211 2147 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.0 11.4 11.9 12.3 13.0 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.1 11.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.6 129.3 129.9 130.5 131.0 132.3 133.4 134.0 134.7 135.1 135.2 135.6 136.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 22 23 24 22 13 9 11 18 22 23 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 14. 18. 20. 22. 24. 26. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 15. 16. 13. 7. 6. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.5 128.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 AMANDA 06/03/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.70 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -48.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.45 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 21.1% 17.7% 14.9% 11.7% 19.9% 17.8% 14.8% Logistic: 4.5% 14.4% 7.2% 2.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 4.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 12.3% 8.5% 6.0% 4.2% 6.9% 6.0% 5.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.6% 9.1% 5.7% 3.5% 2.6% 3.9% 3.5% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 AMANDA 06/03/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##