* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012026 06/03/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 48 54 57 57 53 47 44 42 41 39 38 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 48 54 57 57 53 47 44 42 41 39 38 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 45 47 50 51 50 48 45 42 41 41 41 41 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 9 10 11 14 20 17 8 4 12 12 14 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 1 -2 0 -3 -7 -4 0 0 -6 -8 -9 -9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 101 114 74 93 97 91 80 100 118 158 326 355 355 330 331 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.7 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 148 146 146 140 135 136 136 135 135 135 137 140 141 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 63 62 63 60 57 53 50 43 39 38 38 38 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 19 10 6 1 -7 -1 4 15 27 31 30 25 18 13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 127 107 84 71 66 59 29 6 -33 -49 -46 -22 -53 -1 -32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2315 2330 2346 2350 2352 2386 2440 2351 2300 2253 2214 2186 2169 2157 2152 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.6 12.1 13.0 13.4 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.5 129.0 129.6 130.2 131.6 132.8 133.6 134.1 134.6 135.1 135.5 135.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 8 7 5 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 26 22 21 23 17 7 9 9 10 15 21 23 23 24 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 18. 20. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 26. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 19. 22. 22. 18. 12. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.4 127.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 ONE 06/03/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.71 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -49.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.45 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 28.4% 21.2% 17.5% 14.0% 25.8% 24.9% 16.3% Logistic: 11.5% 31.7% 19.9% 10.5% 3.1% 2.4% 0.4% 2.9% Bayesian: 11.0% 5.7% 4.2% 2.0% 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 11.7% 21.9% 15.1% 10.0% 5.8% 9.7% 8.6% 6.4% DTOPS: 3.0% 15.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 7.3% 18.4% 11.5% 6.5% 3.9% 6.8% 5.3% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 ONE 06/03/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##