* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012026 06/03/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 57 64 65 64 56 50 47 44 41 38 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 57 64 65 64 56 50 47 44 41 38 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 39 43 47 48 49 47 44 43 42 41 40 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 8 9 9 8 13 15 14 5 9 12 8 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 1 -2 0 -4 -6 -3 0 -3 -4 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 131 121 111 87 86 75 84 85 103 124 168 340 352 324 307 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 146 145 143 137 134 133 133 134 134 133 133 135 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 64 62 61 59 55 55 51 48 44 42 38 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 12 13 11 10 9 9 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 30 24 17 9 -6 -1 6 17 30 40 43 46 35 34 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 156 138 141 134 118 82 21 17 12 -21 -37 -26 -44 -39 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2288 2292 2298 2315 2328 2340 2378 2388 2313 2282 2262 2229 2169 2147 2150 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.6 13.5 14.0 14.1 14.1 13.8 13.6 13.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.1 127.6 128.1 128.8 129.4 130.6 132.0 133.1 133.8 134.1 134.4 134.8 135.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 7 8 7 5 2 2 2 3 3 1 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 20 23 21 20 19 11 5 8 8 8 9 13 16 19 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 28. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 27. 34. 35. 34. 26. 20. 17. 14. 11. 8. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.0 127.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 ONE 06/03/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.75 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.84 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -27.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.16 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 29.7% 21.6% 17.1% 0.0% 26.9% 27.7% 17.5% Logistic: 5.3% 22.4% 12.0% 6.3% 1.0% 3.6% 1.5% 3.3% Bayesian: 3.3% 3.2% 4.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 18.4% 12.6% 8.3% 0.3% 10.2% 9.8% 7.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 14.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 4.4% 16.2% 8.8% 4.6% 0.6% 6.6% 6.4% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 ONE 06/03/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##