* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012026 06/03/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 41 53 61 67 67 63 57 53 52 49 46 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 41 53 61 67 67 63 57 53 52 49 46 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 41 43 43 42 40 41 41 41 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 8 10 8 7 11 14 15 12 1 6 9 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -3 -2 -3 -1 3 4 3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 169 156 114 102 73 83 58 64 83 101 120 83 359 8 353 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 149 148 146 138 135 134 134 134 134 136 137 138 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 66 63 64 62 59 57 54 51 51 46 44 41 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 16 15 15 15 14 13 11 11 10 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 39 32 26 23 9 -4 3 8 16 27 30 36 33 21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 169 156 115 116 129 130 78 28 44 23 17 -8 -17 -49 -32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2293 2296 2300 2318 2338 2344 2370 2436 2330 2279 2273 2224 2146 2129 2178 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.6 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.0 12.1 13.1 13.5 13.9 13.9 13.5 13.2 12.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.2 127.6 128.2 128.8 130.1 131.5 132.8 133.7 134.2 134.4 135.0 135.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 6 4 2 2 4 3 1 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 21 20 23 22 24 16 7 8 8 8 13 18 19 22 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. 35. 35. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 28. 36. 42. 42. 38. 32. 28. 27. 24. 21. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 126.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 ONE 06/03/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.70 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.84 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -39.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.32 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.6% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 24.3% 37.4% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 37.3% 18.9% 11.2% 3.3% 8.5% 4.5% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 20.8% 13.3% 3.8% 1.1% 11.0% 14.0% 1.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 13.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 7.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.7% 16.9% 8.6% 2.4% 1.0% 7.5% 10.5% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 ONE 06/03/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##