* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012026 06/02/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 41 52 63 67 68 63 58 53 50 49 45 40 35 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 41 52 63 67 68 63 58 53 50 49 45 40 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 38 45 50 52 50 47 42 39 38 37 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 9 10 15 16 14 21 20 18 9 3 1 7 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -4 -5 -5 -4 0 -3 -1 1 4 4 2 1 6 6 SHEAR DIR 152 165 76 82 82 62 55 56 51 76 98 118 55 139 208 189 171 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.4 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 151 147 147 145 140 138 137 133 132 127 124 119 114 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 72 69 67 64 65 64 68 64 61 56 50 45 45 43 40 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 12 14 16 15 15 14 13 12 10 10 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 42 43 44 45 41 28 15 -3 -12 -3 -2 19 21 14 -2 -4 -1 200 MB DIV 158 155 146 104 109 137 110 78 38 24 2 -7 4 14 9 -29 -21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 2311 2331 2359 2395 2409 2448 2467 2445 2402 2339 2253 2160 2051 1912 1759 1601 1480 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.9 10.4 10.9 11.6 12.4 13.1 13.9 14.5 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.0 127.5 128.1 128.6 129.6 130.4 130.9 131.2 131.1 130.8 130.2 129.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 19 19 20 22 24 22 17 16 16 6 6 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 17. 24. 28. 32. 35. 36. 38. 37. 36. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -8. -5. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 7. 6. 3. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 16. 27. 38. 42. 43. 38. 33. 28. 25. 24. 20. 15. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 126.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 ONE 06/02/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.82 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.83 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.82 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -29.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.19 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 55% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.7% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% 27.4% 54.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 27.4% 13.0% 8.1% 3.0% 6.6% 13.9% 10.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 1.6% 20.0% 12.2% 2.8% 1.0% 11.3% 23.0% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0.8% 12.0% 7.1% 1.4% 0.5% 6.1% 13.5% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 ONE 06/02/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##