* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP992025 10/04/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 54 61 70 81 88 87 81 75 67 62 55 47 39 32 25 V (KT) LAND 40 46 54 61 70 81 88 87 81 75 67 62 55 47 39 32 25 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 51 56 62 73 83 86 82 77 71 64 57 47 37 29 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 14 14 18 20 18 17 19 19 15 11 6 4 5 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -1 -3 -5 0 -2 -1 0 1 0 1 8 6 6 8 SHEAR DIR 46 52 59 67 83 85 84 64 58 76 81 107 100 141 130 204 218 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.8 28.6 27.5 27.2 26.3 25.0 24.2 23.6 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 154 154 155 155 155 150 151 150 138 135 125 111 102 94 92 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 75 75 74 72 70 71 69 72 70 66 63 61 65 64 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 22 24 27 29 32 34 34 34 33 34 33 29 25 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 34 45 54 60 65 65 64 57 53 77 88 89 72 66 51 64 53 200 MB DIV 79 107 96 135 152 162 121 56 42 28 32 38 -26 -15 -7 21 29 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 -5 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 4 19 16 16 21 LAND (KM) 461 448 433 406 379 338 351 408 404 339 363 372 385 394 360 364 372 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 1 2 3 4 5 7 7 7 9 9 7 6 6 5 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 37 36 36 34 29 22 18 13 6 3 2 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 64.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 19. 21. 22. 20. 19. 16. 11. 6. 3. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 9. 1. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 21. 30. 41. 48. 47. 41. 35. 27. 22. 15. 7. -1. -8. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.4 106.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 10/04/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.71 11.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.47 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -9.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.72 7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.32 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 43.6% 33.7% 21.9% 14.5% 39.1% 57.2% 32.9% Logistic: 4.4% 18.8% 6.8% 4.4% 2.0% 9.0% 26.3% 1.8% Bayesian: 3.7% 21.3% 16.2% 4.1% 1.3% 2.5% 0.5% 3.9% Consensus: 7.3% 27.9% 18.9% 10.1% 5.9% 16.9% 28.0% 12.9% DTOPS: 7.0% 43.0% 30.0% 17.0% 7.0% 44.0% 40.0% 33.0% SDCON: 7.1% 35.4% 24.4% 13.5% 6.4% 30.4% 34.0% 22.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 10/04/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##