* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP992025 10/04/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 50 60 70 76 76 72 69 64 58 51 46 40 33 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 50 60 70 76 76 72 69 64 58 51 46 40 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 44 51 57 58 58 56 53 49 43 37 31 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 12 11 18 18 18 16 17 12 17 11 16 10 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -3 -1 -5 -1 -1 -3 0 0 0 -2 0 3 6 7 SHEAR DIR 47 47 54 53 52 82 71 78 62 66 90 102 103 140 176 179 204 SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.6 28.7 28.4 27.2 27.1 26.1 24.5 23.4 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 149 150 152 153 156 155 149 151 148 135 134 123 107 95 89 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -51.9 -52.3 -51.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 2 0 700-500 MB RH 73 72 75 75 75 71 70 69 71 72 69 65 66 63 66 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 20 23 26 29 31 32 31 33 33 32 28 26 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 36 48 57 70 54 65 47 76 82 89 83 74 54 50 34 200 MB DIV 79 82 100 104 128 166 124 109 61 47 21 23 -10 -23 -6 26 19 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 2 -3 -7 -3 -2 -3 -1 2 13 20 14 10 LAND (KM) 445 456 471 439 407 349 352 361 441 366 296 327 361 369 321 269 281 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 2 3 3 4 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 38 37 37 36 33 26 20 16 10 5 3 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 19. 23. 22. 23. 21. 18. 13. 10. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 20. 30. 40. 46. 46. 42. 39. 34. 28. 21. 16. 10. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 105.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 10/04/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.78 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.33 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 22.1% 17.7% 14.2% 0.0% 23.0% 26.4% 35.1% Logistic: 1.2% 11.5% 4.0% 2.2% 0.7% 7.1% 23.7% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.0% Consensus: 3.5% 11.8% 7.5% 5.5% 0.3% 10.1% 16.8% 13.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 31.0% 15.0% 7.0% 4.0% 18.0% 45.0% 39.0% SDCON: 2.7% 21.4% 11.2% 6.2% 2.1% 14.0% 30.9% 26.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 10/04/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##