* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP992025 10/04/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 48 60 69 75 76 75 68 70 64 58 51 46 41 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 48 60 69 75 76 75 68 70 64 58 51 46 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 42 49 55 57 58 57 57 55 49 42 35 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 15 15 17 18 19 17 15 15 11 10 7 9 6 6 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 0 -3 -3 -3 0 0 -2 3 0 0 1 6 4 6 SHEAR DIR 51 40 41 54 66 79 75 80 80 52 72 40 94 111 148 181 187 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.6 27.6 27.2 26.5 25.1 23.7 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 151 148 147 151 154 155 152 151 150 139 135 127 113 99 91 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 76 75 72 71 70 71 72 72 65 62 62 66 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 17 19 20 25 27 29 30 32 30 34 33 31 27 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 25 29 31 40 48 59 59 56 55 60 89 94 80 73 67 61 63 200 MB DIV 105 90 90 103 111 174 160 126 70 50 18 29 1 -39 -9 -7 -3 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 -6 -5 -5 -1 -3 2 12 20 16 12 LAND (KM) 474 466 466 474 482 423 361 363 385 404 330 341 357 341 350 300 322 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 2 4 4 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 38 37 37 36 35 30 24 18 13 7 3 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 19. 23. 26. 21. 25. 21. 17. 12. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 30. 39. 45. 46. 45. 38. 40. 34. 28. 21. 16. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 105.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 10/04/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.78 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.38 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.34 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 20.5% 16.4% 13.0% 0.0% 21.4% 23.1% 28.5% Logistic: 0.7% 5.8% 1.6% 0.9% 0.2% 3.8% 21.3% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.5% Consensus: 3.3% 9.1% 6.1% 4.6% 0.1% 8.4% 14.8% 11.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 16.0% 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% 14.0% 40.0% 7.0% SDCON: 2.1% 12.5% 7.5% 3.3% 0.5% 11.2% 27.4% 9.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 10/04/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##