* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP992025 10/04/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 42 47 58 66 73 76 70 66 65 58 57 51 45 40 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 42 47 58 66 73 76 70 66 65 58 57 51 45 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 42 47 51 53 53 51 50 49 46 41 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 17 20 21 21 20 21 21 15 14 16 18 12 11 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 4 1 0 -3 -1 0 -1 2 0 3 3 3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 60 54 49 49 57 58 83 68 74 58 62 76 83 87 107 74 65 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.7 28.3 27.3 27.6 26.7 26.0 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 149 146 147 148 152 151 148 150 147 136 139 129 122 108 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -51.9 -52.3 -51.2 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 74 73 73 76 75 74 75 71 73 75 72 65 65 62 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 17 19 24 27 30 31 30 30 33 29 32 29 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR 21 20 22 23 34 45 57 43 52 43 84 86 84 84 68 66 51 200 MB DIV 124 98 86 92 108 140 181 150 126 30 17 25 35 15 -3 -34 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 -3 -6 -4 -2 -1 0 0 5 8 10 LAND (KM) 602 577 558 563 569 534 477 450 465 504 466 412 420 456 489 527 498 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 3 2 3 4 6 7 7 7 8 8 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 37 38 39 38 38 37 36 33 27 21 17 11 6 3 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 20. 25. 23. 22. 23. 18. 19. 14. 11. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 17. 28. 36. 43. 46. 40. 36. 35. 28. 27. 21. 15. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 105.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 10/04/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.10 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.66 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.34 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 18.6% 14.7% 11.4% 0.0% 18.7% 18.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2.2% 10.2% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.3% 8.1% 5.3% 4.0% 0.0% 7.0% 9.5% 0.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 14.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 10.0% 28.0% 7.0% SDCON: 2.1% 11.0% 6.6% 3.5% 0.5% 8.5% 18.7% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 10/04/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##