* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP992025 10/03/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 49 58 71 77 81 79 77 73 68 62 58 53 47 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 49 58 71 77 81 79 77 73 68 62 58 53 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 37 39 42 49 58 65 69 68 65 62 59 54 48 43 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 21 15 16 16 13 18 17 18 17 17 19 20 12 9 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 2 3 -1 -1 0 2 0 0 2 0 3 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 58 60 48 46 48 45 70 68 61 59 67 76 64 90 109 164 171 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.2 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.4 27.6 26.9 26.4 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 152 149 148 148 150 155 151 150 147 137 139 131 125 113 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 74 73 76 74 75 75 76 74 74 69 67 62 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 16 19 22 29 30 33 33 34 35 34 33 31 29 24 850 MB ENV VOR 16 23 21 24 26 43 59 56 54 51 64 90 95 91 69 62 55 200 MB DIV 109 100 93 89 104 131 188 166 134 60 29 10 12 14 -38 -17 -9 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -8 -6 -3 -2 -1 1 6 15 18 LAND (KM) 596 568 542 545 551 521 477 453 414 449 484 423 408 432 443 464 438 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 2 3 3 5 7 8 8 7 8 7 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 38 39 39 39 38 37 35 31 23 18 12 7 4 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 14. 18. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 21. 27. 27. 28. 26. 23. 19. 16. 13. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 28. 41. 47. 51. 49. 47. 43. 38. 32. 28. 23. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 104.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 10/03/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.15 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.34 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 19.6% 16.1% 12.8% 0.0% 21.0% 19.6% 18.4% Logistic: 0.5% 4.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 3.6% 20.1% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.4% Consensus: 3.5% 8.9% 6.0% 4.6% 0.0% 8.2% 13.3% 9.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 17.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 11.0% 31.0% 17.0% SDCON: 2.7% 12.9% 8.0% 3.8% 1.0% 9.6% 22.1% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 10/03/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##