* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP992025 10/03/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 31 36 47 63 75 85 88 88 84 83 75 72 63 57 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 31 36 47 63 75 85 88 88 84 83 75 72 63 57 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 28 34 41 50 59 64 65 64 60 53 45 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 18 13 14 15 10 7 6 14 6 4 4 3 7 3 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 0 -3 -4 2 0 0 -3 -2 0 5 7 5 SHEAR DIR 63 67 69 52 38 44 54 66 95 95 124 144 31 84 286 222 251 SST (C) 29.4 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.6 29.5 29.9 29.6 29.2 28.7 26.6 26.1 25.0 24.9 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 154 151 149 149 154 159 158 164 161 157 152 130 124 112 109 109 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -52.5 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.1 -51.2 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.1 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 7 5 6 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 78 76 74 75 74 75 73 71 72 68 67 61 56 49 46 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 17 21 27 30 34 37 39 39 41 38 38 32 28 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 17 22 23 39 53 67 72 88 64 78 76 80 87 74 76 200 MB DIV 116 105 106 92 88 125 161 146 95 94 63 12 -7 12 16 3 10 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 2 -1 -2 -3 0 -2 -2 5 10 3 11 LAND (KM) 588 592 600 589 574 514 407 307 207 222 214 170 281 443 543 600 655 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.7 15.4 16.5 17.9 19.5 21.1 22.2 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.3 106.3 106.9 107.0 106.9 106.4 105.7 105.6 106.2 107.6 109.4 111.5 113.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 4 1 2 4 5 6 10 11 11 12 11 10 7 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 37 39 38 37 37 39 39 37 36 34 23 12 3 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 404 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 33. 34. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 22. 30. 35. 36. 33. 32. 26. 23. 17. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 16. 27. 43. 55. 65. 68. 68. 64. 63. 55. 52. 43. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.4 105.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 10/03/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 12.8% 3.3% 2.0% 0.6% 11.4% 54.4% 24.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 4.2% Consensus: 0.4% 5.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 3.9% 18.3% 9.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 18.0% 7.0% SDCON: 0.2% 5.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 3.9% 18.1% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 10/03/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##